How to Identify and Engage At-Risk Donors Before They Lapse

In today's turbulent higher education landscape and competitive philanthropic environment, donor retention remains the cornerstone of achieving charitable goals. As a higher education practitioner and advancement consultant for over twenty years, I have collaborated with numerous organizations facing the same challenge: identifying donors at risk of lapsing before they disappear from pipelines.

With the average donor retention rate hovering around 45% across the nonprofit sector, most organizations are losing half of their donors annually. This constant churn creates unnecessary pressure to acquire new donors, costing on average 5-10 times more than retaining existing ones.

The Fundraising Effectiveness Report found, “Q2 2024 saw a 3.7% increase in dollars raised, while both the number of donors and donor retention fell by -3.9% and -4.5%, respectively. These trends mirror those seen in Q1 2024, albeit the increase in dollars raised is smaller, while the decrease in the number of donors and retention rates is larger."

The good news? With behavior-driven engagement strategies and predictive analytics, we can identify early warning signs and step in before donors lapse. Below is a guide to building an effective intervention program to re-engage donors who may be at risk.

Identifying the Red Flags 

Utilize your data! To effectively prevent donor retention rates from falling, it is essential to identify donors who may be at risk. Key behavioral indicators to track in your database of record or CRM include the following:

1. Declining Engagement Patterns

• Reduced giving frequency: Donors who once contributed multiple times a year but have reduced their giving cadence.

• Decreased gift amounts: A reduction of 25% or more in gift size compared to previous contributions.

• Ignored communications: unopened emails, unreturned phone calls, and unacknowledged direct mail.

• Event absence: Previously active donors who no longer attend events.

• Reduced digital engagement: Decreased website visits, social media interactions, or email engagement.
  

2. Signs of Relationship Deterioration

• Unresolved complaints: Any donor who has expressed dissatisfaction but has not received adequate follow-up.

• Payment processing issues: Unresolved recurring gift failures or credit card problems.

• Acknowledgment delays: Donors who have experienced significant delays in the acknowledgment of their gifts and have not made a gift since.

• Impact of staff turnover: Donors who had strong relationships with staff members who have left the organization and have not contributed since that individual’s departure.
  

Building Your At-Risk Donor Identification System

Establishing a systematic approach to identify at-risk donors requires both technology and human insight:

1. Implement Predictive Scoring

Develop or adapt a predictive model that assigns risk scores based on:

• Recency: When was their last gift?

• Frequency: Have their typical giving patterns changed?

• Monetary value: Has their giving level decreased?

• Engagement level: How are they interacting with your communications?

• Prospect Pool: Was the donor assigned to a former staff member? Have they been reassigned? *Set an alert for donors who are not reassigned.

• Demographic factors: Are there life stage changes affecting their giving?
  

2. Establish Clear Trigger Points

Define specific thresholds that automatically flag donors for intervention:

• Time-based triggers: No activity for 9 to 10 months for annual donors and within the fiscal year for mid-level, major or principal donors.

• Behavior-based triggers: Three consecutive unopened emails.

• Giving-based triggers: First missed recurring gift or significant decrease in giving level.

• Communication-based triggers: Unsubscribes from certain communications (but not all).
  

Effective Intervention Strategies

Once you've identified at-risk donors, strategic intervention becomes critical. Our work at DRG has shown these approaches to be most effective:

1. Personalized Outreach

• Relationship-based calls: Have a team member with a connection to the donor make a personal call with no ask.

• Handwritten notes: Send personalized correspondence acknowledging their past support and its impact on the philanthropic area they seem most interested in.

• Executive outreach: For mid-level and major donors, a call from organizational leadership can be tremendously effective.

2. Value-Based Re-engagement

• Impact demonstrations: Share specific stories that show how previous gifts made a difference.

• Behind-the-scenes access: Invite them to exclusive virtual or in-person experiences.

• Surveying with a purpose: Ask donors for their feedback about your fundraising campaigns, events, communication strategies, or for their input on program direction or communications preferences.

3. Giving Pathway Adjustments

• Giving frequency options: Offer monthly giving alternatives to annual donors who may prefer smaller, regular gifts.

• Alternative giving methods: Introduce donor-advised funds, appreciated stock, or IRA giving options.

• Special project opportunities: Present finite, tangible projects aligned with their demonstrated interests.
  

Implementation Timeline

For organizations looking to build or strengthen their at-risk donor program, here's a practical timeline:

·      Month 1: Data assessment and predictive score development.

·      Month 2: Intervention strategy design and resource allocation.

·      Month 3: Staff training and initial outreach to highest-risk donors.

·      Months 4-6: Full program implementation and process refinement.

·      Months 7-12: Ongoing monitoring, intervention, and program optimization.

Measuring Success

Establish clear metrics to evaluate your program's effectiveness:

• Reactivation rate: The percentage of at-risk donors who give again.

• Intervention ROI: Dollars raised compared to the cost of analyzing data and employing intervention techniques.

• Long-term retention: Whether reactivated donors remain active over time and are retained at a current or upgraded level.

• Upgrade potential: The percentage of reactivated donors who could increase their giving (based on wealth indicators, loyalty, volunteer hours, etc.). How many of these individuals upgraded? Run this statistic at least once each fiscal year.

In today's evolving philanthropic landscape, proactively identifying and connecting with at-risk donors is more important than ever. By applying behavior-based strategies, your organization can improve retention, increase lifetime value, and reinforce the long-term strength of your mission.

Remember—donor retention is ultimately about the quality of relationships. The most successful intervention programs combine data-driven insights with genuine human connection. Donors who feel truly valued for more than their financial contributions are much more likely to remain loyal supporters!

Written by Jenny Jones

As a project specialist at DRG Group, Jenny helps nonprofits craft data-informed strategies to strengthen donor retention and engagement. Interested in learning how these approaches could work for your organization? Reach out for a complimentary consultation—we’d love to connect and support your goals.